One false belief that many filmmakers have is that film festival submissions are akin to lottery tickets.

Most of us (myself included), at some point have said something like –

“We’re gonna submit to Sundance. It’s a lottery ticket, but you can’t win if you don’t play.”

Instinctually, this feels correct, as there are tens of thousands of submissions for top tier festivals and only a handful of slots.

Mathematically, that equates to less than a 1% chance of getting into any of the most coveted fests. So naturally, we draw comparisons to playing the lottery.

But there is one big difference that filmmakers always overlook. And it’s an important one if you want to A) optimize your odds of getting in, and B) understand why you are getting rejected.

With a real lottery, everyone has an equal chance of winning – no matter how minuscule that chance may be.

It doesn’t matter where you live, who you know, or how wealthy you are. If you buy a lottery ticket, you have the same (almost non-existent) chance to win as anyone else. The only way to increase your odds are to buy another ticket.

Film festivals are the opposite of this. Every entry is weighted differently.

There are a thousand variables that can make a film more desirable to festival programmers. These include:

• A well known / name cast
• Major agency representation
• Alumni status of the filmmaker
• Alignment with festival mandates
• Potential to generate press or sales

Just to name a few.

You can’t fault the festivals. They are businesses that operate based on profit, as they need to in order to be solvent.

If they only programmed no-budget films with unknown talent and no PR potential, they would lose tons of money and go bankrupt.

Even still, it is entirely possible for a no-budget / DIY film to get into a major festival.

Every year there are one or two films at each major festival that prove that the underdogs can still find a way in. But those films don’t represent 99% of the programming decisions being made.

I share this not to deter anyone from submitting to festivals – but rather to help manage expectations and understand what is really required.

If you are simply going to make a no-budget film and submit it blindly to festivals, you shouldn’t get upset when it doesn’t get in. Especially with any of the top 5 – 10 major festivals.

But by the same token, if your greatest goal is to premiere at one of those festivals – then understand how that game is played, and play it.

Cast the actors that will not only make your movie great, but also appeal to programmers. Get your film repped by a sales agent with festival connections. Generate press that proves your movie can create buzz.

Or don’t – and avoid festivals entirely. Go straight to distributors or self-release through YouTube.

There is no right answer. Filmmakers have succeeded with and without leveraging film festivals.

The only wrong decision is to operate naively, without an understanding of how it all really works.

At a minimum, simply accepting that festivals weight films differently gives you an upper hand – Whether that means optimizing your chances of getting in or avoiding the festival circuit entirely.

So long as you approach things from a place of understanding, you can navigate with purpose and find success on your terms.

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